A month ago, the same question put Conservative support on 39%, Labour on 31% and the Liberal Democrats on 19%. There is already concern among some Labour MPs about the impact of a Brown leadership, especially if it happens without a contest that could allow Mr Brown to set out a fresh programme and identity. Writing in the Guardian last week, the former minister Frank Field asked: "What new directions can be offered when the architect of current policies has merely moved up one place?" [Guardian]

Personally, I don’t think this poll is very significant. Brown is generally underestimated and isn’t even out of the gate yet. Not to mention that the Lib Dems would lose a minimum of 5 points if they were told a vote for their own party would lead to a Tory government (a similar strategy used in the past by the Liberal party of Canada to convince left-leaning NDP voters to go along with them). That would bring Labour up a bit, and there are yet many opportunities for the inexperienced Conservative leadership to stumble. British troops may yet be coming home soon from Iraq, and as long as Prince Harry isn’t kidnapped by insurgents (would there be enough ink in all of the UK to handle this event?), it will be easier for Brown to un-identify Labour with the Iraq disaster when it’s on the front pages less often. (It will be particularly easy if, once he assumes the premiership, he makes large-scale reductions in British troop numbers in Basra–something Blair, under increasing American pressure, is unwilling to do.)

Since I believe that Brown would beat Cameron in a general election (though with a much reduced majority or perhaps even minority government), it’s interesting to consider how his administration would differ from Tony Blair’s both in terms of policy priorities and personality. A podcast/lecture called "Gordon’s World" at the Lowy Institute addresses these question.