Pundits began preparing Rudy Giuliani’s political obituary a few weeks ago as his primary losses piled up and his standing in Florida, his "firewall" state, began to slip. After coming a pathetic third in Florida on Tuesday night, he dropped out of the race the following day. His campaign for president must surely go down as one of the worst in history. Giuliani was a poor candidate to begin with and his high poll numbers over the summer and early fall mostly based on name recognition. An unpleasant man?estranged from his children, and whose second wife famously learned he was leaving her when he announced it at a press conference?Giuliani’s moderate stance on social issues were anathema to the Republican base. A fascinating "vulnerability study" from 1993, commissioned by his own mayoral campaign staff, gives details of the "weirdness factor" that turned off many voters. (And there was the ferret video I wrote about last year.) Added to this, his campaign strategy was terrible. Instead of full-throated campaigning in early primary states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina?which he believed wouldn’t take kindly to his liberal position on social issues?he decided to focus on Florida as a springboard to bigger states like California and New York. Had he been on scene and squeezed out some third place finishes, he might have stayed alive to fight a little longer. But instead the winners and those who had good showings in these early primaries gained strength and attention, and as Giuliani consistently came in at the back of the pack, he appeared weaker and weaker. His sixth place finish in South Carolina?far behind Ron Paul?was a total humiliation, and set the stage for Florida. But the real problem was his message. He was running a 2004 campaign, four years too late. His mantra-like repetition of the phrase "On 9/11 . . ." no longer carried the immediacy it did during the 2004 presidential campaign. Homeland security was not a big issue. His fear-mongering, as seen in the video above, did not resonate?instead it spread a noxious cloud of desperation over his campaign. He hadn’t visited Iraq since the invasion. He never owned a foreign policy issue. By refusing to update his campaign and use some imagination on issues like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran, his rhetoric felt empty and his badgering about 9/11 exploitative at best. What political consultant worth his or her salary would recommend Bush-style messaging for the 2008 campaign for the Republican nomination? The idea is absurd and it was embraced by Giuliani (a far less talented politician than Bush, it should be said). Americans had moved on. They handed "America’s Mayor" a richly deserved humiliation.
The End of Giuliani
By Richard Norman
So I guess McCain is succeeding because instead of talking about how islamic fundamentalism is only “the greatest threat”, he uses the word “transcendental” to describe it and talks about pursuing Osama to the “Gates of Hell.” If only Rudy realized that what Republicans really want is talk about good and evil couched in quasi-religious terms…
Hi Richard
Nice post. I think that you are right on target about Rudy. I also think that his humiliation can be seen as part of a larger story. Voters (both democrat and republican) feel betrayed by politicians (read George Bush) who used terrorism as a partisan political weapon. They do not want to be manipulated again, and they want to demonstrate that. Thus, candidates who have emphasized their moderation and independence have done well. The Clinton campaign seems not to have grasped this fully, hence her difficulty subduing the Obama insurgency.