By Otto Spijkers
Last week, Mr. Vuk Jeremic, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Serbia, came to Leiden University to speak, among other things, about the future of Kosovo and the importance of the deadline of 10 December 2007. Reuters writes the following about the 10 December deadline:
Dec. 10 is the deadline for a troika of international mediators trying to broker a solution on Kosovo’s future status to submit its report to the United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon. The United States and EU, who with Russia are the parties to the talks, say the troika should wrap up its talks by that date — a position that has put them at odds with Moscow. Kosovo’s majority Albanian population wants to split from Serbia and declare its independence by the end of this year, whether or not there is a negotiated solution by then. Serbia does not want an independent Kosovo. Russia has backed Serbia and blocked a proposal by a United Nations envoy that would have set Kosovo on the path to independence.
This is what the Serbian Minister remarked about the deadline:
As you know, December 10th has been set as a deadline. And some key participants in the process are telling Belgrade and Pristina that Kosovo’s independence will be imposed if no agreement is reached by then?a very un-European course of action leading to an outcome that is really no solution at all. For it promotes the interests of one side: the Kosovo Albanians. Put yourself in their shoes: with a set deadline and a default position that fulfils its maximalist demands, what incentive does Pristina have to negotiate in good faith? Why not just sit back, appear engaged, and simply wait out the clock? The way out of this looming crisis lies in viewing the December 10th deadline as a marker for assessing progress, and nothing more. By re-defining the significance of this date, the impasse will have been overcome. For an environment would be created?for the first time?in which an historical settlement can be crafted. It is the only way to avoid freezing this conflict?the only way to prevent creating a victor and a vanquished in a region where the loser spends the next generation plotting revenge on the winner. It’s the only way to overcome the spiral of violence, and to once and for all bring Serbs and Albanians together under the banner of Europe.
The entire speech of the Minister can be found on the Leiden University website, here (go to PDF-file at the bottom of the page). – Otto
Otto:
“But it is not a matter of ‘extending’ sovereignty. Traditionally, Kosovo was not independent.”
Eh. In the SFRY period, Kosovo’s provincial status gave it almost as much autonomy as any of the republics–one of the major objections of Serbians in the 1990s was that Serbia’s two autonomous provinces could effectively veto proposals of the Serbian government.
Michael:
“You are right to be worried. Kosovo already is one of those types of problems, and it will likely remain that way for a long, long time. But in my view, the Serbs have nothing to offer to make the situation better. They can, however, make it worse in a variety of ways if Europe lets them.”
Douglas Muir’s analysis as A Fistful of Euros has his take:
http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/transition-and-accession/kosovo-then-what
Hi Otto
You are right to be worried. Kosovo already is one of those types of problems, and it will likely remain that way for a long, long time. But in my view, the Serbs have nothing to offer to make the situation better. They can, however, make it worse in a variety of ways if Europe lets them.
But it is not a matter of ‘extending’ sovereignty. Traditionally, Kosovo was not independent. What most worries me is that this may turn out to be one of those unsolvable problems, where an interim situation (United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo, UNMIK) will not be interim, but will last for decades.
Here Here Randy!
At this stage, the only things that Serbia can do to retaliate for Kosovar independence are wholly self-destructive. Start an armed conflict with the EU and/or NATO in Kosovo? Ally wholeheartedly with the Russians? Reject European integration and stew.
Kosovo is lost. If a state is going to extend its authority over a territory, it has to gain the support of the population if it’ll work. If not, then as in Kosovo or the similar case of the Israeli-occupied territories, claims to sovereignty are a dead letter.
Hi Otto
Point taken. This minister himself is not likely to ?plot revenge”. Perhaps he is just being honest that Serb anger (in the abstract) is dangerous. But assuming Kosovo does sever its links to Belgrade (likely) what will happen and why? The minister suggests that there will be a sort of frozen anger that may erupt again and again into violence. He may be right. But so what? Are we to be eternally frightened of Serb anger? After all, the world is not frightened by Estonian anger of what the Russians did in the Baltics. Anyway, who would organize this ongoing violence? The ordinary man on the street? I don’t think so. My point is that the organization would likely come from organized crime elements. Why? First, they get the benefit of appearing to be Serb patriots (distracting people from the other things they do). Second, ongoing violence is a hindrance to the development of good governance — which over time would shut down their profit making ventures. The more basic point – the region is plagued by a double barreled problem: history, and those who manipulate history for other reasons. This is why the Djindjic assassination was such a key event. It brought out that the overthrow of Milosevic did not solve the deeper problem of getting rid of the corruption that Milosevic exploited.
Hello Michael,
I was a bit surprised myself by the tone of the Minister’s speech, and the clarity of the replies he gave in the Q&A session afterwards. I mean: he didn’t really use the careful language one often finds in such speeches. That was refreshing. I am not really an expert on the topic, but I can see how the emotions and history involved can play a role in determining one’s position on the future status of Kosovo. I don’t agree with your remarks about organized crime and that the Serb people will kill. The Minister helped to overthrow Slobodan Milosevic in 1999, it is important to remember that.
Hi Otto!
It is hard to feel pity for the Serbs isn’t it? I don’t know about you , but I do not think that speeches like this help either.
Good faith? Crafting settlements? Bringing Serbs and Albanians together under the banner of Europe? What a lot of bull. Even Montenegro finally split away from Belgrade. Yet the Serb leadership still clings to the illusion that they should have a say in regional politics (and not for any lofty reasons such as love of peace or democracy, respect for human rights, or even basic human decency). To the contrary! Based on the remarks of the minister, what should we expect when Kosovo slips away from Belgrade’s grasp? And does he really believe that giving the “negotiations” more time would stop that? According to the minister, the next generation of Serbs will now “plot revenge”! Wait a minute — was this and is this the “good faith” basis for “crafting” an agreement?
Of course it wasn’t and it isn’t. Let’s be honest. Stripped of the rhetoric, it is the same tired old threat of violence — if the Serb leadership is not placated the Serb people will kill. It is power politics being played by a leadership who has exhausted any legitimate claim to regional power. So where would their “power” conceivably come from? From organized crime, of course. This is the real enemy that Europe is fighting in the Balkans. In that vein, perhaps 1948 should run a nice post about how the Serbs still have not come to terms with the assassination of Mr. Djindjic, and maybe they never will. It is why (regardless of what happens in December) this region cannot yet govern itself.